Should the target be break-even or a profit?

That is your decision. Break-even is the minimum the event has to achieve to cover itself. Any target above it is a commercial choice, and it should be set from your own conversion history rather than an assumed industry figure.

How do you set a target when you have no past event data?

Use the conversion rate from your closest comparable channel, such as inbound enquiries or outbound meetings, and treat the result as a scenario to test rather than a forecast. Record the actual figures at the event so the next target is based on your own data.

How to set trade show ROI targets before the event

Most exhibition targets are set the wrong way round: a lead number is picked because it sounds ambitious, then nobody checks whether it would actually cover the cost. Working backwards from the budget gives you a target the numbers support.

Step 1: fix the investment

Add up everything: space and stand, event fees, staff time for every day away, travel, accommodation, marketing and materials. Targets built on the stand price alone will always be too easy.

Step 2: convert it into customers

Break-even customers = total investment ÷ average customer value, rounded up

Use the average revenue a new customer brings in over the period you are willing to count, and be consistent about whether that is first-year value or lifetime value. This is the floor: the number of customers the event has to win simply to break even.

Step 3: convert it into leads

Leads required = break-even customers ÷ your lead to customer rate

Use your own historic rate, from past events if you have them or from your closest comparable channel if you do not. A rate borrowed from an industry article is a guess dressed up as data, and it will produce a target nobody can be held to.

Step 4: turn leads into a daily plan

Divide the lead target by the number of show days, then by the number of staff on the stand. That gives each person a figure they can actually work to, and it makes an unrealistic target obvious before you have paid for the space rather than after.

Worked example

Total investment: £18,500
Average customer value: £8,000
Break-even customers: 3
Lead to customer rate: 2%
Leads required to break even: 150
Show days: 3
Staff on stand: 4
Leads per person per day: 13

Illustrative figures only, not a benchmark or a typical result.

Agree the measurement first

Before the doors open, write down what counts as a lead, what counts as qualified, how long after the show a deal can still be attributed to it, and who records the numbers. Targets argued over afterwards are targets nobody learns from.

Common questions

Work backwards. Start from the total investment, divide by your average customer value to get break-even customers, then divide that by your own historic lead to customer rate to get the number of leads required.

Set your target in about a minute

Enter your planned costs and average customer value to see break-even customers and the return your expected figures imply.

Work out your target

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